“The future ain’t what it used to be”
Yogi Berra
Growing up there were many ideas that we thought were
futuristic. Some were given to us from
science fiction writers who had a vision of the future, some by futurists who believed
that technology was going to evolve to a point where our way of living was
going to be transformed. Some seem to be
wildly off the mark (the flying Delorean from the “Back to the future
franchise” springs to mind). But some
seem to be coming to us sooner than we think.
Here is a list of concepts that I believe will be made possible in the
relatively near future.
Full automation: Manufacturing has been transforming extremely
rapidly in the past few years. Following
the Second World War, most manufacturing was focused in North
America and was a very labor intensive model. Manufacturing is now moving offshore to low
cost producers. Recently it was in China, but even more recently manufacturers are
moving to even lower cost producers than China. But what if we were able to take away the
human capital from manufacturing? Technology
in the field of automation would make human labor a thing of the past and factories
would be completely self-automated. Imagine
a factory being run with only one human overseer (if even that) while still
able to run efficiently and with a degree of perfection that humans cannot
perform. Already we are seeing
manufacturing being performed by 3D printers which can potentially allow
someone to build something in their own home.
Robots begin to take over more roles that have been traditionally done
by people.
Remember that we make more food today with only 2 percent of
the working population devoted to agriculture than we did when 90 percent
worked in agriculture. Manufacturing
seems like the next logical step.
Virtual Reality: The first steps have begun already. Online media outlets (like Facebook and LinkedIn)
enable people to live networked and online without the need for physical
interaction. We already create virtual
worlds as seen by the popularity of online sites such as World of Warcraft and
Second Life. Goggles already exist which
would allow someone to experience an online world in full 360 vision. Technology is gradually moving to the point
where virtual worlds can be experienced in all 5 senses, not just sight and
sound. A Matrix-like reality that seems
indistinguishable from the real world and can fool the brain into thinking it
is real. At the rate we are going we
should see the first iterations of this in the next few years.
Less Physical
stuff: Books become converted to
PDF’s, music and movies get downloaded rather than sold in CD format. Family photos are archived in digital
format. Paintings can be portrayed on
digital screens (and changed depending on the whim of the home owner). Computers that were once the size of a living
room are shrunk down to the size of a pamphlet.
TV’s which you can fold up and put up like a poster. An “Omni tool” which will replicate an entire
workshop of tools by morphing into different shapes, depending on the
need. People can move to a new country
with one suitcase. People stop buying
cars because the public transportation system covers an entire city in an
efficient transportation grid. Print
newspapers and magazines become extinct.
Infinite Energy: Already countries around the world are
groaning under the need to supply energy to a rapidly growing world. The Pentagon issued a statement a number of
years ago that Energy independence should be a strategic priority for the United States. Using military power to secure energy sources
becomes more difficult over time.
Countries like China
and Japan compete for
resources in the South China Sea. The traditional resources based energy
economy becomes more obsolete. New
energy sources need to be found. Mini-
Nuclear power plants supply power to individual cities. Solar power plates the size of Arizona can float in
space and send back energy via microwaves.
Geothermal power harnessed directly from the Earth’s core. Wind power fields that cover New Zealand and become the new “Saudi Arabia”
of renewable energy. Fission technology
which would split atoms and allow a glass of water to power a city.
In addition to providing more energy, our society would
simultaneously find ways to use less.
Energy efficient cars, energy efficient homes, and other improvements
make our energy footprint smaller.
Unlimited Food: This really ought to be possible
now. Given the improvements in food
technology there really should be efficient means to provide nourishment to the
entire human population.
End of Poverty: Given improvements in healthcare, medical
care, nourishment, and the ability to provide basic services and staple goods
at a low price, eventually there should be an end to what we call poverty. Sure
income inequality will not disappear, but societies will be able to provide a
bare minimum living standard which will allow individuals to live at a decent
level.
Power Armor: This refers to soldiers going into combat
with futuristic armor. Already there are
articles about exoskeletons which allow soldiers to carry heavier loads. As time goes by, armies are becoming smaller,
more high tech, and more professional.
Mass conscripted armies give way to smaller leaner fighting forces which
are much more elite. Look at the
proliferation of Special Forces activities in the US army. Political will is becoming less tolerant of
human casualties in a world of universal media.
Imagine soldiers similar to Iron Man or Space Marines. Already there is talk of uniforms which allow
soldiers to become invisible. Imagine
soldiers who can go to war completely bulletproof.
Droid Armies: The “Drone wars” are already making this
a reality. Drone pilots can fight a war
in Afghanistan in the
comfort of an office in Nevada. Politically this has advantages because you
don’t need to write a letter to the drone’s mother when one gets shot down and
it creates less outrage. Robots can go
into dangerous situations that humans would be hesitant to enter.
Cashless Society: With the proliferation of Credit cards, debit
cards, online banking, and online shopping, this will be more a reality as time
goes by.
Flexible Careers: The age of specialization is a fairly recent
chapter in human history, probably starting around the time of the industrial
revolution and the rise of capitalism. A
few hundred years ago it was common for a well educated gentleman do to
everything (hence the term “renaissance man”).
These days, professions are becoming increasingly obsolete because 1)
they are being outsourced to lower cost centers or 2) they are being replaced
by computer programs or automated. Factory
workers see that their factory moves to Mexico, a lawyer sees that his job
can be automated and/or replaced by a paralegal. A tax accountant sees that more people are
using tax software during tax season. A
doctor in India can read a
person’s diagnosis and send back a report to a client in the United States, at a fraction of the cost that a US doctor would
charge. A check out clerk at a
supermarket is replaced by a machine which allows people to check them
out. People are already changing careers
an average of 7 times in their lifetime.
In the future work will be more modular.
Rather than embark on a chosen career path, people will have flexi
careers where the emphasis will be adaptability rather than a rigid dogma.
More Egalitarianism: The spread of the internet has allowed grass roots
movements to organize more effectively.
Look at recent cases of the Occupy movement on Wall Street and the Arab
Spring in the Middle East. Protests have the ability to spread and morph
at a rate unprecedented in human history.
People will demand a more equitable spread of wealth.
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